Muslim Voter Turnout Breaks Records in U.S. Elections

The role of Arab and Muslim Americans in US politics has significantly evolved in the past few decades as a relatively recent immigrant group. The first wave of Arab immigration dates back to the late 19th century, consisting primarily of Christian Arabs from the Levant, particularly from Lebanon. [1] However, most Arab and Muslim immigration to the US began after the Civil Rights Movement and the immigration reforms of the 1960s.[2]

In the American context, the definition of Arabs and Muslims refers to a diverse group connected more by shared cultural traits than by traditional ethnic or religious lines. It is important to distinguish between these groups; Arabs and Muslims are not synonymous, as not all Muslims in the US are Arab, nor are all Arab Americans Muslim.

This religious and cultural diversity, coupled with varying levels of integration within the American society, is manifested in different voting dynamics between Muslim and Arab Americans. While the majority of Arabs in the US are Christians,[3] likely making them less sensitive to Trump’s and the far-right policies, a large portion of Muslim Americans are more directly affected by the presidential candidate’s stance on issues like immigration and religious freedom. Additionally, many Arab American families who migrated in the late 19th century[4] have become more integrated into the American society, which can influence their voting behavior differently from more recent Muslim immigrants.  In spite of these differences, religion does not create significant divides in voting patterns regarding major issues. On crucial matters like civil rights, foreign policy, and social justice, for instance, there is considerable alignment between Arab and Muslim American voters, reflecting a strong sense of shared interests and values.

The American Political System

The American political system is unique and complex due to the stratified nature of its governance and voting at the city, county, state, and federal levels. Voting patterns can differ across these levels, as the same voters might support a Democrat in a federal election while choosing Republicans for county, state, or even school district elections, and vice versa. It is not uncommon for voters to shift their preferences depending on the office in question, as each level of government addresses different concerns. While federal elections might be shaped by broad national issues, local elections tend to focus on the immediate needs of the community. This adaptability in voting reflects the nuanced role each level of governance plays in addressing the varying priorities of everyday life.

2020 vs. 2024 Elections

1. The Trump Era:

Political awareness and civic engagement have significantly increased among Arab and Muslim Americans, especially during Trump’s presidency, as many felt targeted by the American right-wing—a sentiment reminiscent of the post-September 11, 2001.

In response to Trump’s policies, large numbers of Arab and Muslim Americans have become more politically active, participating in demonstrations against his administration and strengthening their ties with the Democratic Party, particularly its progressive and left-leaning factions. They have also built alliances with other minority groups, such as Black Americans and the LGBTQ+ community, demonstrating a resilient and pragmatic approach to coalition-building. Ironically, Trump’s policies and rhetoric amplified the visibility and influence of Arab and Muslim Americans in both the media and political arena. Media attention on Muslims following Trump’s election even led some Americans to overestimate the Muslim American population, with a poll suggesting they believed there were approximately 54 million Muslim Americans. [5]

According to the US Census Bureau, the 2020 presidential election had the highest voter turnout, with 66.8% of eligible American voters participating. [6] Muslim voter participation exceeded the national average, with 1,086,087 registered voters representing 71% of the Muslim electorate. [7] Of these, 52% (779,793) chose early or absentee voting[8] thus reflecting high political mobilization, active participation, and growing engagement within the Muslim-American community.

The strong political engagement of Arab and Muslim American voters was also evident in their voting preferences. Approximately 60%[9] of Arab Americans and 86%[10] of Muslim Americans voted for Biden in the 2020 election, reflecting a strong rejection of former President Trump’s discriminatory policies and rhetoric toward the Muslim community.

1. The War on Gaza Effect:

This presidential election can be portrayed as the most crucial election for Arab and Muslim Americans in their history. Never before have Arabs’ and Muslims’ role been so potentially decisive in a presidential election. While their votes supported the Democratic party mainly since September 11, Joe Biden’s unlimited and unprecedented American support of Israel’s war on Gaza has created resentment within the Arab and Muslim communities. Many Arab and Muslim Americans now feel a sense of betrayal and disappointment following their overwhelming support for Biden in 2020, with a growing sentiment that their votes were exploited as a political tool by the party.

Biden has become a focal point of frustration for Arab and Muslim Americans since the Gaza war broke out last year. Biden’s support among Arab Americans has significantly dropped from 59% in 2020 to just 18% in 2024, according to recent polls. [11] In contrast, Trump maintains around 32% support, roughly the same level he had in 2020. [12] This disapproval has culminated in a nuanced “Uncommitted Movement” in which many voters, disappointed by his policies on Gaza, above all, have withheld their support for the 2024 election.

As Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden, some Arab and Muslim voters initially shifted their support towards her in hopes she would adopt a new policy toward ending the war and Palestinians’ suffering. To that effect, some Muslim activist women launched a campaign called “Muslim Women for Harris-Walz” aimed to rally support within the Muslim-American community. [13]

However, Harris adopted Biden and the Democratic Party’s rhetoric and policies. For example, the Democratic National Convention (DNC) has refused demands from the Uncommitted Movement to allow a Palestinian American speaker at the convention in Chicago. This decision led the Muslim Women for Harris-Walz group to dismantle their organization, citing the refusal as the reason they “cannot in good conscience” continue supporting the campaign. [14]

New Shifts and Trends

This series of events has led many Arab and Muslim voters to reassess their political affiliations and recognize their potential influence within the US political landscape. The upcoming election will test that political power. The goal of these communities is not to shift US policy or create a political alternative but to protest American policies. Arab and Muslim Americans see their actions as more than mere protest—they are aimed at challenging the Democratic Party for ignoring their demands and conveying the message that the latter cannot secure victory without their support in battleground states.

In August 2024, a survey by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR)  showed 29.4% of Muslim Americans support Kamala Harris, followed closely by 29.1% favoring Dr. Jill Stein from the Green Party, and 11.2% backing Donald Trump. Dr. Cornel West of the People’s Party garnered 4.2%, while 16.5% of those surveyed remained undecided. [15] While the absence of a clear consensus reflects Muslim and Arab communities’ diversity, many leaders are nonetheless pushing for unity. The only point of agreement, thus far, is a firm rejection of the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris.

1. New Alliances – The Uncommitted Movement:

Arab and Muslim voters are not the only group aiming to end the war in the Middle East; they are joined by other political actors, such as the politically left-leaning progressive wing, and other progressive groups and independents who are not represented by the current two-party system. This common purpose, coupled with shared frustrations with Biden’s administration and the Democratic party as a whole, led to the development of strong ties between the aforementioned groups: The result of that alliance is the Uncommitted Movement.

The Uncommitted National Movement was established during Michigan’s February 2024 Democratic primary as a direct response to President Biden’s perceived indifference toward the concerns of Arab and Muslim American communities. The Movement’s focus on Michigan, the so-called “capital” of Arab and Muslim communities in the US, enabled it to receive a staggering 101,000 votes or 13% of the total votes in the state. [16]

All in all, the Movement has secured 700,000 uncommitted votes across the United States. [17] Surprisingly, uncommitted votes were higher in some states where Arabs and Muslims are a small minority, like Minnesota (19%) and Hawaii (29%),[18] which shows a growing momentum beyond the Arab and Muslim American communities.

The Uncommitted Movement has sparked uncertainty and anxiety within the Democratic Party. The alliance between Arab and Muslim Americans and progressives could significantly strengthen Arab and Muslim voter turnout in key battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, potentially giving them the numbers to sway election results. This partnership may also form a political bloc capable of playing a crucial role in other state and federal elections within these states, further amplifying their influence.

1. The Electoral College – Achilles Heel:

The presidential election in the United States is conducted through the Electoral College system, a unique voting mechanism that diverges from both direct democracy and a simple popular vote. This system is based on state-level representation, where each state’s electoral votes are determined by its total congressional representation (House members plus Senators), with a minimum of three electors per state, regardless of population. The Electoral College creates a two-stage election process, where voters in each state choose electors who then cast votes for the president. [19]

The Electoral College is critical because most US states are divided into either overwhelming Republican red states, like most of the Southern states (Alabama, Mississippi, etc.), or Democratic blue states (California, New York, etc.). However, a few states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, are more evenly divided between the two parties and are thus commonly referred to as swing or battleground states. The Electoral College gives these states more significant influence in deciding the election, presenting both a challenge and an opportunity, as a relatively small number of states can ultimately determine the outcome.

Minorities have the opportunity to influence the political process because of the unique and complex nature of the American political system. Despite their smaller demographic footprint, Arab and Muslim communities’ concentration in pivotal swing states has heightened their political significance. For example, in Georgia, where Biden won by a narrow margin of just 12,000 votes, over 61,000 Muslim voters participated. In Pennsylvania, with a margin of 81,000 votes, 125,000 Muslim voters cast their ballots. Biden received about 65% of the Muslim vote in these critical states, contributing significantly to his victory. [20]

The fact that even relatively small demographic groups may often make a difference between victory and defeat is especially evident today: In the 2024 elections, Arab and Muslim voters are motivated and mobilized by the war in Gaza to make an impact.

If Arab and Muslim voters, alongside progressives, manage to sway states like Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, it could be enough to change the election outcome. However, if the Democrats lost those states, Trump’s stakes would significantly rise. While small minority groups may influence the election outcome, they cannot force a particular candidate onto either side due to the constraints of the American political system and the dominance of the two-party system.

Punitive Voting

There are several possible scenarios for how Arab and Muslim voters might protest against the Democrats in the 2024 elections. While some may choose to vote for Trump as an act of defiance, a growing segment is leaning towards endorsing progressive or independent candidates who are further left than the Democratic Party. This approach aims to weaken the Democratic Party’s chances in key battleground states by siphoning off votes and disrupting their electoral prospects.

This leads us to ask: Do Arab and Muslim Americans want Trump to win? If they do, why aren’t they voting directly for him? For many, the answer lies in a deep dissatisfaction with both major parties’ stance on the Middle East (Democrats) as well as intolerant policies targeting minorities (Republicans).  Voters may thus seek alternatives to express their frustration, like supporting third-party candidates or staying undecided.

Recent polls suggest that Arab and Muslim Americans are showing less support for the Democratic Party and its candidate, Kamala Harris, but their voting responses and choices may diverge in the upcoming election. While both communities express dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party to varying degrees, each group gravitates toward different candidates, reflecting their unique concerns and priorities in this election.

A survey by the Arab American Institute found that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris run almost evenly among Arab American voters, with Trump at 42% and Harris at 41%. Among voters who say they are likely to cast their ballots, Trump holds a slight edge with 46% compared to Harris’s 42%. Arab American voters show limited enthusiasm for third-party candidates, with only 12% expressing willingness to support one. [21]

In contrast, CAIR conducted a survey focusing on Muslim Americans in key battleground states; Dr. Jill Stein leads Kamala Harris in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin with 35%, 40%, and 44%, respectively. [22] Meanwhile, Harris holds the lead over Stein in Georgia and Pennsylvania with 43% and 37%, respectively. [23] Donald Trump shows his strongest support in Nevada, where he leads with 27%, narrowly ahead of Harris at 26%.[24] In these states, their vote might make a difference in the Electoral College outcome and, therefore, in the outcome of the entire election.

The CAIR survey also revealed that nearly one-third of voters favor the Green Party’s candidate, Dr. Jill Stein. She appeals to Arab and Muslim Americans and progressives due to her alignment with their goal to end the war. While it’s widely acknowledged that Stein has no real chance of winning, her candidacy offers an alternative to disrupting the election on the Democratic side.

Interestingly, some voters, particularly Muslim Americans, are unwilling to support Trump but are also reluctant to back the Democrats. By choosing third-party candidates or abstaining from voting, they may inadvertently boost Trump’s chances. If a more moderate Republican candidate were in the race, many might lean toward the GOP, but Trump’s presence complicates that decision. Despite this, a portion of both Arab and Muslim Americans still view third-party candidates as a potential outlet for their frustration, even though such candidates may not stand a real chance of winning.

A significant development came in September 2024 when Amer Ghalib, the Democratic mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan—the first Muslim-majority city in the US—officially endorsed Donald Trump as an expression of his frustration with his party. The news shocked not only Democrats but also many within the Republican Party. Such an unorthodox political move could have significant repercussions in the November election.

This surprising endorsement highlights two key points. First, it reflects a growing rift between the leaders of the Arab and Muslim communities and the Democratic Party, suggesting they are becoming more pragmatic and willing to defy traditional expectations. In other words, they are giving up on the Democratic Party. This indicates that these voters are no longer bound to one party and are ready to shift their support to whichever side better serves their interests.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Arab and Muslim voters have a historic opportunity to play a pivotal role in shaping the upcoming election’s outcome. Their concentration in crucial battleground states and shared dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party have put them in a position to influence the race significantly. However, this potential impact is far from certain. The lack of consensus on a single candidate, with some voters leaning towards Trump, others supporting third-party candidates, and many still undecided, makes it difficult to predict how their collective vote will shift the electoral landscape. Without a unified direction, their influence could be fragmented, leaving the ultimate effect of their voting power unclear.